Sources

1. Facebook entry cohort · overviewfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.215Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT COUNT(*) sample_size, SUM(eligible) eligible_ads, COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN eligible THEN brand END) eligible_brands, SUM(instr(platform,'facebook')>0) facebook_ads FROM ads

2. Facebook entry cohort · themesfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT theme,SUM(matched) ads,COUNT(*) denominator,1.0*SUM(matched)/COUNT(*) share FROM tags JOIN ads USING(ad_id) WHERE eligible=1 GROUP BY theme ORDER BY ads DESC

3. Facebook entry cohort · format_mixfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT format,COUNT(*) ads,COUNT(*)/94.0 share FROM ads WHERE eligible=1 GROUP BY format ORDER BY ads DESC

4. Facebook entry cohort · heatmapfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT theme,format,SUM(matched) tagged,COUNT(*) denominator,1.0*SUM(matched)/COUNT(*) share FROM tags JOIN ads USING(ad_id) WHERE eligible=1 GROUP BY theme,format ORDER BY theme,format

5. Facebook entry cohort · lifespanfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Five-number summaries computed per format from 94 eligible observations. Quantile position=(n-1)*p with linear interpolation; whiskers are observed min/max. Transformation is in build_facebook_dashboard.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT format,min,q1,median,q3,max,n FROM lifespan_summary ORDER BY format

6. Facebook entry cohort · lifespan_chartfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Quartiles from 94 eligible observations; linear interpolation at position (n-1)*p. Transformation is in build_facebook_dashboard.mjs. Each bar is a descriptive lifespan percentile, not a forecast or purchase result.

   SQL query

   SELECT format,'25th percentile' statistic,q1 days,n FROM lifespan_summary UNION ALL SELECT format,'Median',median,n FROM lifespan_summary UNION ALL SELECT format,'75th percentile',q3,n FROM lifespan_summary

7. Facebook entry cohort · overlapfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT 'Routine + barrier' pair,COUNT(*) ads FROM ads WHERE eligible=1 AND instr(themes,'Routine / simplicity')>0 AND instr(themes,'Barrier / sensitive')>0 UNION ALL SELECT 'Routine + hydration',COUNT(*) FROM ads WHERE eligible=1 AND instr(themes,'Routine / simplicity')>0 AND instr(themes,'Hydration / glow')>0

8. Facebook entry cohort · detailsfacebook_entry_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

   Recomputed from reviewed GetHookd ad records. Platform list establishes Facebook availability, not actual placement spend. Text rules are preserved in revise_skincare_report.mjs.

   SQL query

   SELECT ad_id,brand,format,days_active,score,eligible,themes,platform FROM ads ORDER BY eligible DESC,days_active DESC

9. Circana: US beauty first half 2026, August 11 release
10. Adobe: US online holiday shopping 2025, January 7 release
11. Analyst Q4 planning assumptions — not a statistical forecastskincare_q4_queries.sql · SQLite · 2026-09-05T05:08:15.174Z

    Explicit judgmental growth bands anchored to the published 9% H1 2026 prestige skincare result. No fitted model, calibrated likelihood or confidence interval. Bounds are subjective adjustments; not Circana forecasts.

    SQL query

    SELECT 'Base: moderation to continuation' scenario, 0.05 lower_growth, 0.09 upper_growth, 'H1 anchor of 9%, minus 4 to 0 percentage points' assumption UNION ALL SELECT 'Downside: demand slows', -0.02, 0.04, 'H1 anchor minus 11 to 5 points; stress case includes contraction' UNION ALL SELECT 'Upside: momentum accelerates', 0.10, 0.13, 'H1 anchor plus 1 to 4 points'

12. Meta Blueprint: Measure the impact of your ad creative
13. Circana · US beauty H1 2026

    Prestige skincare dollars rose 9%; body care 16%; sun care 19%. Prestige hair was reported at 11%, fragrance 6%, and makeup 3%. Scope: US tracked prestige/mass retail; H1 2026 versus H1 2025. Publication: 2026-08-11. Limitation: The release calls skincare fastest-growing but also reports hair at 11%. Do not repeat that ranking. Numeric figures are presented as reported, not independently audited. Body/sun care are not additive to skincare.

14. McKinsey · State of Beauty 2026

    Value-conscious shoppers mix price tiers; premium pricing alone does not establish skincare performance. Discovery and purchase span multiple channels. Scope: Global model and channel analysis; cited consumer survey fielded February 2025, 1,500 respondents per market across 13 markets. Publication: 2026-06-18. Limitation: Global findings are not a US skincare-only survey. Forecasts are model estimates. Consumer fieldwork is from 2025, not the publication month. TikTok statistics must not be presented as Facebook performance.

15. AAD · Skin care on a budget

    AAD recommends a simple foundation of cleansing, moisturizing and protection, and notes that expensive products are not required for effectiveness. Scope: Dermatology guidance, not a consumer-demand survey. Publication: Undated; checked September 5, 2026. Limitation: This argues against claiming an essence is essential for everyone. It does not measure the prevalence of routine fatigue or endorse rhode.

16. AAD · Dry-skin guidance

    Moisturization, fragrance-free care and environmental dryness are relevant to dry-skin routines. Scope: General care guidance; cold/dry conditions are contextual, not a sales forecast. Publication: Undated; checked September 5, 2026. Limitation: No quantified Q4 demand lift or product-specific treatment effect. Geography, weather and individual skin needs vary.

17. Sephora · Glazing Milk SKU 2898419

    The listing shows $32 for 124 ml, a milky hydration essence, fragrance-free labeling, and use after cleansing. It also lists a 50 ml mini option. Scope: US product listing; 124 ml full size. Publication: Live listing checked September 5, 2026. Limitation: Product claims are seller-supported, not independently verified efficacy. Price and availability change; the 5% subscription price is not the one-time offer.

18. rhode · Glazing Milk facts and usage

    Positions the essence as hydration and prep before serums/moisturizers. The reported percentages come from a 31-person, one-week consumer-perception study. Scope: Manufacturer product description; $20 mini / $32 full size. Publication: Live page checked September 5, 2026. Limitation: Not a blinded clinical efficacy trial. Fragrance-free does not guarantee tolerance. Do not promise no pilling, no reactions, SPF protection, or replacement of moisturizer.

19. Meta Blueprint · Creative measurement

    Meta distinguishes creative A/B tests and lift tests as measurement approaches. Scope: A/B and lift-test education; not account-specific feature availability. Publication: Course checked September 5, 2026. Limitation: The page does not establish the exact controls available in your account, a required sample size, or any guaranteed improvement.

20. Circana H1 2026 prestige category rates — transcribed published figuresSQLite · 2026-09-05T05:36:49.216Z

    Published percentage changes transcribed into a local reviewed table. The release’s fastest-category wording conflicts with its hair-care number; use the individual reported rates, not that wording.

    SQL query

    SELECT category,growth,period,geography,channel FROM published_circana_h1_2026 ORDER BY category

21. Sephora: rhode Glazing Milk, SKU 2898419
22. rhode: product facts and source media